Systematic Review of Trajectories Out of Violent Extremism: Toward a Model of Disengagement Based on Cumulative Disillusionment

Authors

  • Sébastien Brouillette-Alarie Université du Québec à Montréal
  • Émeraude Lapointe-Provost Université du Québec à Montréal
  • Traian Toma Université du Québec à Montréal
  • Ghayda Hassan Université du Québec à Montréal
  • Sabrina Charikhi Université du Québec à Montréal
  • Nour El Houda Belmabrouk Université du Québec à Montréal
  • Rania Ikram Djermane Université du Québec à Montréal
  • Wynnpaul Varela Université du Québec à Montréal

Keywords:

Violent Extremism, Violent Radicalization, Desistance, Disengagement, Social Reintegration, Deradicalization, Trajectories, Pathways, Systematic Review

Abstract

Understanding why individuals disengage from violent extremism is as important as understanding why they become involved in it. While research has largely focused on pathways into radicalization, knowledge about exit trajectories is essential for informing secondary and tertiary prevention efforts. This review aimed to synthesize empirical research on desistance from violent extremism in order to identify key factors, obstacles, and turning points shaping exit trajectories and to develop an empirically grounded model of social reintegration. Following Campbell Collaboration guidelines adapted to the prevention of violent extremism literature, we systematically searched academic databases and gray literature for primary empirical studies on trajectories out of violent extremism published up to December 31, 2023. Due to methodological heterogeneity and the predominance of qualitative studies, the synthesis combined descriptive mapping with AI-assisted thematic analysis. A total of 149 studies met the inclusion criteria out of 14,863 records. The synthesis suggests that desistance rarely results from a single turning point but instead reflects the gradual accumulation of internal tensions and external pressures that generate disillusionment and, in turn, create openings for change. Sustained desistance is supported by relational and structural resources such as family relationships, vocational training, or reintegration programs, which provide alternative sources of identity, belonging, and purpose. However, reintegration remains fragile when individuals encounter stigma, social exclusion, or continued exposure to extremist milieus. Overall, the findings highlight that desistance from violent extremism involves the reconstruction of identity and social belonging, with patterns that overlap with broader desistance models in criminology and related fields.

References

Altier, M. B. (2021). Violent extremist disengagement & reintegration: Lessons from over 30 years of DDR. RESOLVE Network. https://doi.org/10.37805/vedr2021.1

Altier, M. B., Thoroughgood, C. N., & Horgan, J. G. (2014). Turning away from terrorism: Lessons from psychology, sociology, and criminology. Journal of Peace Research, 51(5), 647–661. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343314535946

Andrews, D. A., & Bonta, J. (2010). Rehabilitating criminal justice policy and practice. Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, 16(1), 39–55. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0018362

Astley, J. (2025). Ideological idiosyncrasies and individual-level radicalisation pathways: Unpacking the mutating dynamics of contemporary extremism. Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism, 20(3), 380–398. https://doi.org/10.1080/18335330.2025.2502580

Axelsson, J., Eriksson, L., & Grip, L. (2024). Managing violent extremist clients in prison and probation services: A scoping review. Terrorism and Political Violence, 36(4), 488–511. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2023.2169144

Bjørgo, T., & Horgan, J.G. (Eds.). (2009). Leaving terrorism behind: Individual and collective disengagement. Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203884751

Brouillette-Alarie, S., Hassan, G., Ousman, S., Savard, É. L., Kilinc, D., Madriaza, P., Varela, W., Pickup, D., & Danis, E. (2025a). Systematic review on the outcomes of tertiary prevention programs in the field of violent radicalization. Journal for Deradicalization, 42, 140–193. https://journals.sfu.ca/jd/index.php/jd/article/view/1027

Brouillette-Alarie, S., Hassan, G., Varela, W., Danis, E., Ousman, S., Madriaza, P., Pauls, I. L., Kilinc, D., Pickup, D., Pelzer, R., Borokhovski, E., & the CPN-PREV team. (2025b). Reliability and validity of risk assessment tools for violent extremism: A systematic review. Campbell Systematic Reviews, 21, e70080. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.70080

Brouillette-Alarie, S., Hassan, G., Varela, W., Ousman, S., Kilinc, D., Savard, É. L., Madriaza, P., Harris-Hogan, S., McCoy, J., Rousseau, C., King, M., Venkatesh, V., Borokhovski, E., & Pickup, D. (2022). Systematic review on the outcomes of primary and secondary prevention programs in the field of violent radicalization. Journal for Deradicalization, 30, 117–168. https://journals.sfu.ca/jd/index.php/jd/article/view/577

Brouwers, M. C., Kho, M. E., Browman, G. P., Burgers, J. S., Cluzeau, F., Feder, G., Fervers, B., Graham, I. D., Grimshaw, J., Hanna, S. E., Littlejohns, P., Makarski, J., & Zitzelsberger, L. (2010). AGREE II: Advancing guideline development, reporting and evaluation in health care. Canadian Medical Association Journal, 182(18), E839–42. https://doi.org/10.1503/cmaj.090449

Carthy, S. L., & Sarma, K. M. (2023). Countering terrorist narratives: Assessing the efficacy and mechanisms of change in counter-narrative strategies. Terrorism and Political Violence, 35(3), 569–593. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2021.1962308

Chubb, L. A. (2023). Me and the machines: Possibilities and pitfalls of using artificial intelligence for qualitative data analysis. International Journal of Qualitative Methods, 22. https://doi.org/10.1177/16094069231193593

Cohen, J. (1960). A coefficient of agreement for nominal scales. Educational and Psychological Measurement, 20, 37–46. https://doi.org/10.1177/001316446002000104

Conseil supérieur de l’éducation, & Commission de l’éthique en science et en technologie. (2024). Intelligence artificielle générative en enseignement supérieur : Enjeux pédagogiques et éthiques [Generative artificial intelligence in higher education: Pedagogical and ethical issues]. Gouvernement du Québec. https://www.cse.gouv.qc.ca/publications/ia-enseignement-sup-50-0566/

Cook, D. A., Ginsburg, S., Sawatsky, A. P., Kuper, A., & D’Angelo, J. D. (2025). Artificial intelligence to support qualitative data analysis: Promises, approaches, pitfalls. Academic Medicine, 100(10), 1134–1149. https://doi.org/10.1097/acm.0000000000006134

Cooperman, S. R., & Brandão, R. A. (2024). AI assistance with scientific writing: Possibilities, pitfalls, and ethical considerations. Foot & Ankle Surgery: Techniques, Reports & Cases, 4(1), 100350. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fastrc.2023.100350

Curtis, N. M., Ronan, K. R., & Borduin, C. M. (2004). Multisystemic treatment: A meta-analysis of outcome studies. Journal of Family Psychology, 18(3), 411–419. https://doi.org/10.1037/0893-3200.18.3.411

Dalgaard-Nielsen, A. (2013). Promoting exit from violent extremism: Themes and approaches. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 36(2), 99–115. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2013.747073

Dawson, L. L. (2018). Challenging the curious erasure of religion from the study of religious terrorism. Numen, 65(2–3), 141–164. https://doi.org/10.1163/15685276-12341492

Decker, S. H., & Pyrooz, D. C. (2015). “I’m down for a Jihad”: How 100 years of gang research can inform the study of terrorism, radicalization and extremism. Perspectives on Terrorism, 9(1), 104–112. http://www.jstor.org/stable/26297330

Feddes, A.R. (2015). Socio-psychological factors involved in measures of disengagement and deradicalization and evaluation challenges in Western Europe. Middle East Institute. https://mei.edu/publication/understanding-deradicalization-pathways-enhance-transatlantic-common-perceptions-and/

Feddes, A. R., Nickolson, L., van Bergen, N. R. J., Mann, L., & Doosje, B. (2023). Extremist thinking and doing: A systematic literature study of empirical findings on factors associated with (de)radicalisation processes. International Journal of Developmental Science, 17(1–3), 7–18. https://doi.org/10.3233/DEV-230345

Gansewig, A., & Walsh, M. (2024). “That is simply one thing that goes with it”: Former extremists in school settings and empirical evidence. Educational Review, 76(2), 277–298. https://doi.org/10.1080/00131911.2022.2028733

Gartenstein-Ross, D., Zammit, A., Chace-Donahue, E., & Urban, M. (2025). Composite violent extremism: Conceptualizing attackers who increasingly challenge traditional categories of terrorism. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 48(12), 1343–1369. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2023.2194133

Gough, D., Oliver, S., & Thomas, J. (2012). An introduction to systematic reviews. SAGE.

Grip, L., & Kotajoki, J. (2019). Deradicalisation, disengagement, rehabilitation and reintegration of violent extremists in conflict-affected contexts: A systematic literature review. Conflict, Security & Development, 19(4), 371–402. https://doi.org/10.1080/14678802.2019.1626577

Gwet K. L. (2008). Computing inter-rater reliability and its variance in the presence of high agreement. The British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology, 61(1), 29–48. https://doi.org/10.1348/000711006X126600

Hassan, G., Brouillette-Alarie, S., Alava, S., Frau-Meigs, D., Lavoie, L., Fetiu, A., Varela, W., Borokhovski, E., Venkatesh, V., Rousseau, C., & Sieckelinck, S. (2018). Exposure to extremist online content could lead to violent radicalization: A systematic review of empirical evidence. International Journal of Developmental Science, 12(1-2), 71–88. https://doi.org/10.3233/DEV-170233

Hassan, G., Brouillette-Alarie, S., & Ousman, S. (2023). Risk for violent radicalization: Do primary, secondary and tertiary prevention programmes effectively address risk and protective factors? In C. Logan, R. Borum, & P. Gill (Eds.), Violent extremism: A handbook of risk assessment and management (pp. 179–212). UCL Press. https://doi.org/10.14324/111.9781800081970

Hassan, G., Deli, C., Ousman, S., Brouillette-Alarie, S., & Rousseau, C. (2025). Systematic review of trajectories into violent extremism: Toward a classification of trajectories. Canadian Practitioners Network for the Prevention of Extremist Violence. https://cpnprev.ca/systematic-review-7

Hassan, G., Varela, W., Brouillette-Alarie, S., Lapointe-Provost, É., Toma, T., Sabila, S., Charikihi, S., Braddock, K., Carthy, S., & Madriaza, P. (2026). Government-led communication campaigns for reducing violent extremism: A systematic review [Manuscript submitted for publication]. Département de psychologie, Université du Québec à Montréal.

Hemmila, T., & Perliger, A. (2025). Hybridization or salad bar ideology? Testing ideological convergence within the American violent far right. Crime & Delinquency, 71(3), 830–859. https://doi.org/10.1177/00111287241271288

Holbrook, D., & Horgan, J. (2019). Terrorism and ideology: Cracking the nut. Perspectives on Terrorism, 13(6), 2–15. https://pt.icct.nl/article/terrorism-and-ideology-cracking-nut

Horgan, J. (2009). Walking away from terrorism: Accounts of disengagement from radical and extremist movements. Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203874738

Horgan, J., & Braddock, K. (2010). Rehabilitating the terrorists?: Challenges in assessing the effectiveness of de-radicalization programs. Terrorism and Political Violence, 22(2), 267–291. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546551003594748

Koehler, D. (2017). Understanding deradicalization: Methods, tools and programs for countering violent extremism. Routledge.

Koehler, D. (2025). What’s in a word? Revisiting the role of ideology in the practice of and scholarship on countering violent extremism. Terrorism and Political Violence, 37(7), 1015–1030. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2025.2484753

Koehler, D., Becker, M. H., Clubb, G., Bélanger, J. J., & Williams, M. J. (2025). Lived experience and messenger credibility: A replication study on P/CVE messenger credibility in Germany. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2025.2545794

Koehler, D., Clubb, G., Bélanger, J. J., Becker, M. H., & Williams, M. J. (2025). Don’t kill the messenger: Perceived credibility of far-right former extremists and police officers in P/CVE communication. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 48(11), 1194–1213. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2023.2166000

Krohn, M. D., Buchanan, M., & Davis, A. (2015). Life course criminology. In J. D. Wright (Ed.), International encyclopedia of the social & behavioral sciences (2nd ed.) (pp. 59–66). Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-08-097086-8.45067-1

Landis, J. R., & Koch, G. G. (1977). The measurement of observer agreement for categorical data. Biometrics, 33(1), 159–174. https://doi.org/10.2307/2529310

Laub, J. H., & Sampson, R. J. (2001). Understanding desistance from crime. Crime and Justice, 28, 1–69. https://doi.org/10.1086/652208

Laub, J. H., & Sampson, R. J. (2003). Shared beginnings, divergent lives: Delinquent boys to age 70. Harvard University Press.

Lussier, P., & Gress, C. L. Z. (2014). Community re-entry and the path toward desistance: A quasi-experimental longitudinal study of dynamic factors and community risk management of adult sex offenders. Journal of Criminal Justice, 42(2), 111–122. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2013.09.006

Maruna, S. (2001). Making good: How ex-convicts reform and rebuild their lives. American Psychological Association. https://doi.org/10.1037/10430-000

McKenzie, A., & O’Brien, D. (2024). The evolution of estimated time of arrival: The City of Toronto’s CVE program. Journal for Deradicalization, 39, 94–128. https://journals.sfu.ca/jd/index.php/jd/article/view/911

Morrison, J. F., Silke, A., Maiberg, H., Slay, C., & Stewart, R. (2021). A systematic review of post-2017 research on disengagement and deradicalisation. Centre for Research and Evidence on Security Threats (CREST). https://crestresearch.ac.uk/resources/a-systematic-review-of-post-2017-research-on-disengagement-and-deradicalisation/

Neumann, P. R. (2010). Prisons and terrorism: Radicalisation and de-radicalisation in 15 countries. International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation and Political Violence (ICSR). https://icsr.info/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/ICSR-Report-Prisons-and-Terrorism-Radicalisation-and-De-radicalisation-in-15-Countries.pdf

Page, M. J., McKenzie, J. E., Bossuyt, P. M., Boutron, I., Hoffmann, T. C., Mulrow, C. D., Shamseer, L., Tetzlaff, J. M., Akl, E. A., Brennan, S. E., Chou, R., Glanville, J., Grimshaw, J. M., Hróbjartsson, A., Lalu, M. M., Li, T., Loder, E. W., Mayo-Wilson, E., McDonald, S., ... Moher, D. (2021). The PRISMA 2020 statement: An updated guideline for reporting systematic reviews. BMJ, 372, n71. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n71

Pager, D. (2003). The mark of a criminal record. American Journal of Sociology, 108(5), 937–975. https://doi.org/10.1086/374403

Peels, R. (2025). Cognitive and behavioral radicalization: An explanatory split? Terrorism and Political Violence. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2025.2502860

Peels, R. (2026). Extreme belief and extreme behavior reconsidered: A response to Clark McCauley and Sophia Moskalenko. Terrorism and Political Violence, 38(3), 315–320. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2025.2580990

Popay, J., Roberts, H., Sowden, A., Petticrew, M., Arai, L., Rodgers, M., Britten, N., Roen, K., & Duffy, S. (2006). Guidance on the conduct of narrative synthesis in systematic reviews: A product from the ESRC Methods Programme. Lancaster University. https://doi.org/10.13140/2.1.1018.4643

Prochaska, J. O., DiClemente, C. C., & Norcross, J. C. (1992). In search of how people change. Applications to addictive behaviors. The American Psychologist, 47(9), 1102–1114. https://doi.org/10.1037//0003-066x.47.9.1102

Rousseau, C., Johnson-Lafleur, J., Ngov, C., La Rochelle, X., Brouillette-Alarie, S., Gignac, M., Veissière, S., & Crocker, A. (2023). Risk assessment challenges in a specialized clinic for individuals referred for violent extremism. Journal of Threat Assessment and Management. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1037/tam0000214

Rousseau, C., Johnson-Lafleur, J., Ngov, C., Savard, C., & Veissière, S. (2024). Hybrid ideologies in clinical settings: Implications for intervention of the changing landscape in violent extremism. Perspectives on Terrorism, 18(3), 51–68. https://doi.org/10.19165/2024.4965

Rousseau, C., Miconi, D., Ngov, C., & Hassan, G. (2025). Ideological and nihilistic violence in adolescents referred to a specialized clinic for violent extremism. Canadian Journal of Criminology and Criminal Justice, 67(2), 30–48. https://doi.org/10.3138/cjccj-2024-0057

Rousseau, C., Ngov, C., & Brouillette-Alarie, S. (2026). Referral pathways and clinical profiles among individuals involved in violent extremism and violent nihilism. Perspectives on Terrorism, 20(2), 101–111. https://pt.icct.nl/article/referral-pathways-and-clinical-profiles-among-individuals-involved-violent-extremism-and

Sampson, R. J., & Laub, J. H. (1993). Crime in the making: Pathways and turning points through life. Harvard University Press.

Sampson, R. J., & Laub, J. H. (2001). Understanding desistance from crime. Crime and Justice, 28, 1–69. https://doi.org/10.1086/652208

Sampson, R. J., & Laub, J. H. (2003). Life-course desisters? Trajectories of crime among delinquent boys followed to age 70. Criminology, 41(3), 555–592. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-9125.2003.tb00997.x

Sandelowski, M., Barroso, J., & Voils, C. I. (2007). Using qualitative metasummary to synthesize qualitative and quantitative descriptive findings. Research in Nursing & Health, 30(1), 99–111. https://doi.org/10.1002/nur.20176

Silke, A., Morrison, J., Maiberg, H., Slay, C., & Stewart, R. (2021). The Phoenix model of disengagement and deradicalisation from terrorism and violent extremism. Monatsschrift für Kriminologie und Strafrechtsreform, 104(3), 310–320. https://doi.org/10.1515/mks-2021-0128

Sivenbring, J., & Andersson Malmros, R. (2019). Mixing logics: Multiagency approaches for countering violent extremism. Segerstedtinstitutet, University of Gothenburg. http://hdl.handle.net/2077/66720

Spergel, I. A., & Grossman, S. F. (1997). The Little Village Project: A community approach to the gang problem. Social Work, 42(5), 456–470. https://doi.org/10.1093/sw/42.5.456

Tibby, C. (2026). Incoherent violent extremism in a New Zealand cohort. Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1080/18335330.2026.2637446

The Campbell Collaboration. (2021). Campbell systematic reviews: Policies and guidelines (Version 1.8). https://doi.org/10.4073/cpg.2016.1

Tonks, S. & Stephenson, Z. (2018). Disengagement from street gangs: A systematic review of literature. Psychiatry, Psychology and Law, 26(1), 21–49. https://doi.org/10.1080/13218719.2018.1482574

Université du Québec. (2025). Énoncé de principes sur l’utilisation responsable de l’intelligence artificielle générative dans les activités de formation et de recherche [Statement of principles on the responsible use of generative artificial intelligence in training and research activities]. https://docutheque.uquebec.ca/id/eprint/559/

van der Heide, E., & Schuurman, B. (2018). Reintegrating terrorists in the Netherlands: Evaluating the Dutch approach. Journal for Deradicalization, 17, 196–239. https://journals.sfu.ca/jd/index.php/jd/article/view/179

Walsh, M., & Gansewig, A. (2019). A former right-wing extremist in school-based prevention work: Research findings from Germany. Journal for Deradicalization, 21, 1–42. https://journals.sfu.ca/jd/index.php/jd/article/view/275

Ward, T., & Maruna, S. (2007). Rehabilitation: Beyond the risk paradigm. Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203962176

Windisch, S., Simi, P., Ligon, G. S., & McNeel, H. (2016). Disengagement from ideologically-based and violent organizations: A systematic review of the literature. Journal for Deradicalization, 9, 1–38. https://journals.sfu.ca/jd/index.php/jd/article/view/72

Wolfowicz, M., Litmanovitz, Y., Weisburd, D., & Hasisi, B. (2020). A field-wide systematic review and meta-analysis of putative risk and protective factors for radicalization outcomes. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 36(3), 407–447. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-019-09439-4

Zeuthen, M. (2021). Reintegration: Disengaging violent extremists - A systematic literature review of effectiveness of counter-terrorism and preventing and countering violent extremism activities. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands. https://english.iob-evaluatie.nl/binaries/iob-evaluatie-eng/documents/sub-studies/2021/02/01/literature-studies-%E2%80%93-counterterrorism-and-preventing-and-countering-violent-extremism/Rusi_Reintegration_disengaging_violent_extremists_202102.pdf

Downloads

Published

2026-09-25

Issue

Section

Articles