Evaluating an Interactive Film on the Prevention of Political Radicalization
Keywords:
Preventing Political Radicalization, Interactive Film, Gamification, Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT)Abstract
The functionality of social media permits (and maybe fosters) an increase in political radicalization, which causes immense social harm. In response, authorities have started using social media for prevention but empirical evidence on the effectiveness is scarce The present study evaluates the effects of an interactive film distributed in social media that aims to reduce the individual level of radicalism in attitudes and radicalization intentions. During the film, viewers have to express their opinion on increasingly radical statements by clicking popup buttons. Depending on their opinions, the plot of the film takes a different route. For identification of causal effects, the evaluation uses a randomized controlled trial (RCT) with a two-week follow-up. The empirical results show that the film immediately reduces the level of radicalism in attitudes by 12% and radicalization intentions by 15% of a standard deviation. After two weeks, these effects are still persistent but fade out a little in the general population. There are stronger and more persistent effects among the subgroups of 18-24 year-olds, women, and people on the left of the political spectrum. Because these subgroups resemble the characteristics of the protagonists, we speculate that social identification enhanced treatment effects. Cognitive dissonance, on the other hand, may explain why people on the right of the spectrum did not react to the film. The findings demonstrate the importance of target-group oriented design and early prevention.
References
Ajzen, I. (1985). From intentions to actions: A theory of planned behavior. In Action control (pp. 11–39). Springer.
Azjen, I. (1980). Understanding attitudes and predicting social behavior. Englewood Cliffs.
Bail, C. A., Argyle, L. P., Brown, T. W., Bumpus, J. P., Chen, H., Hunzaker, M. B. F., Lee, J., Mann, M., Merhout, F., & Volfovsky, A. (2018). Exposure to opposing views on social media can increase political polarization. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 115(37), 9216–9221.
Banks, A., Calvo, E., Karol, D., & Telhami, S. (2021). # polarizedfeeds: Three experiments on polarization, framing, and social media. The International Journal of Press/Politics, 26(3), 609–634.
Bardwell, H., & Iqbal, M. (2021). The Economic Impact of Terrorism from 2000 to 2018. Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 27(2), 227–261.
Bartlett, J., Birdwell, J., & King, M. (2010). The edge of violence: A radical approach to extremism. Demos, 5–75.
Basil, M. D. (1996). Identification as a mediator of celebrity effects. Journal of Broadcasting & Electronic Media, 40(4), 478–495.
Berger, J. M. (2016). Promoting disengagement from violent extremism (No. 5; ICCT Policy Brief). JSTOR.
Bergmann, M. C., & Baier, D. (2015). Wir hier-Zukunft in Aachen: Ergebnisse einer Befragung von Aachener Kindern und Jugendlichen. Kriminologisches Forschungsinst. Niedersachen.
Bhui, K., Hicks, M. H., Lashley, M., & Jones, E. (2012). A public health approach to understanding and preventing violent radicalization. BMC Medicine, 10(1), 1–8.
Bhui, K., Warfa, N., & Jones, E. (2014). Is violent radicalisation associated with poverty, migration, poor self-reported health and common mental disorders? PloS One, 9(3), e90718.
Bjørgo, T., & Carlsson, Y. (2005). Early intervention with violent and racist youth groups (No. 677; NUPI Paper). NUPI.
Borum, R. (2011). Radicalization into violent extremism I: A review of social science theories. Journal of Strategic Security, 4(4), 7–36.
Castronovo, C., & Huang, L. (2012). Social media in an alternative marketing communication model. Journal of Marketing Development and Competitiveness, 6(1), 117–134.
Chapple, C., & Cownie, F. (2017). An investigation into viewers’ trust in and response towards disclosed paid-for-endorsements by YouTube lifestyle vloggers. Journal of Promotional Communications, 5(2).
Chatfield, A. T., Reddick, C. G., & Brajawidagda, U. (2015). Tweeting propaganda, radicalization and recruitment: Islamic state supporters multi-sided twitter networks. Proceedings of the 16th Annual International Conference on Digital Government Research, 239–249.
Cialdini, R. B. (2007). Influence: The psychology of persuasion (Vol. 55). Collins New York.
Cinelli, C., Forney, A., & Pearl, J. (2020). A crash course in good and bad controls (No. 3689437; Social Science Research Network Papers, Vol. 3689437).
Cinelli, M., Morales, G. D. F., Galeazzi, A., Quattrociocchi, W., & Starnini, M. (2021). The echo chamber effect on social media. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118(9).
Della Porta, D. (2013). Clandestine political violence. Cambridge University Press.
DESTATIS. (2020). Bevölkerung: Altersjahre, Geschlecht. https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Bevoelkerung/Bevoelkerungsstand/_inhalt.html
Dillard, J., & Harmon-Jones, C. (2002). A cognitive dissonance theory perspective on persuasion. The Persuasion Handbook: Developments in Theory and Practice, 99.
Djafarova, E., & Rushworth, C. (2017). Exploring the credibility of online celebrities’ Instagram profiles in influencing the purchase decisions of young female users. Computers in Human Behavior, 68, 1–7.
Doosje, B., Moghaddam, F. M., Kruglanski, A. W., De Wolf, A., Mann, L., & Feddes, A. R. (2016). Terrorism, radicalization and de-radicalization. Current Opinion in Psychology, 11, 79–84.
Falk, A., Becker, A., Dohmen, T., Enke, B., Huffman, D., & Sunde, U. (2018). Global evidence on economic preferences. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 133(4), 1645–1692.
Falk, A., Becker, A., Dohmen, T., Huffman, D., & Sunde, U. (2016). The preference survey module: A validated instrument for measuring risk, time, and social preferences (No. 9674; IZA Discussion Paper).
Fenstermacher, L., NSI, L. K., Rieger, T., & Speckhard, A. (2010). Protecting the homeland from international and domestic terrorism threats. White Paper: Counter Terrorism, 178.
Festinger, L. (1962). A theory of cognitive dissonance (Vol. 2). Stanford university press.
Fink, C. (2018). Dangerous speech, anti-Muslim violence, and Facebook in Myanmar. Journal of International Affairs, 71(1.5), 43–52.
Fishbein, M., & Ajzen, I. (1977). Belief, attitude, intention, and behavior: An introduction to theory and research.
Fishbein, M., & Ajzen, I. (2011). Predicting and changing behavior: The reasoned action approach. Taylor & Francis.
Garimella, K., De Francisci Morales, G., Gionis, A., & Mathioudakis, M. (2018). Political discourse on social media: Echo chambers, gatekeepers, and the price of bipartisanship. Proceedings of the 2018 World Wide Web Conference, 913–922.
Gates, S., & Podder, S. (2015). Social media, recruitment, allegiance and the Islamic State. Perspectives on Terrorism, 9(4), 107–116.
Gruber, F., Lützinger, S., & Kemmesies, U. E. (2017). Extremismusprävention in Deutschland–Erhebung und Darstellung der Präventionslandschaft. Modulabschlussbericht. Wiesbaden: Bundeskriminalamt.
Hafez, M., & Mullins, C. (2015). The radicalization puzzle: A theoretical synthesis of empirical approaches to homegrown extremism. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 38(11), 958–975.
Hoffner, C., & Buchanan, M. (2005). Young adults’ wishful identification with television characters: The role of perceived similarity and character attributes. Media Psychology, 7(4), 325–351.
Horgan, J. (2004). The psychology of terrorism. Routledge.
Hübner, M., Schmidt, P., Schürhoff, R., & Schwarzer, S. (2014). Allgemeine Autoritarismus-Kurzform. Zusammenstellung Sozialwissenschaftlicher Items Und Skalen. Mannheim: GESIS.
Huey, L. (2015). This is Not Your Mother’s Terrorism: Social Media, Online Radicalization and the Practice of Political Jamming. Journal of Terrorism Research, 6(2).
Jugl, I., Lösel, F., Bender, D., & King, S. (2020). Psychosocial prevention programs against radicalization and extremism: a meta-analysis of outcome evaluations. European Journal of Psychology Applied to Legal Context, 13(1), 37–46.
Kelman, H. C. (2006). Interests, relationships, identities: Three central issues for individuals and groups in negotiating their social environment. Annu. Rev. Psychol., 57, 1–26.
Kessling, P., Kiessling, B., Burkhardt, S., & Stöcker, C. (2020). Dynamic Properties of Information Diffusion Networks during the 2019 Halle Terror Attack on Twitter. International Conference on Human-Computer Interaction, 568–582.
Kling, J. R., Liebman, J. B., & Katz, L. F. (2007). Experimental analysis of neighborhood effects. Econometrica, 75(1), 83–119.
Kober, M. (2017). Zur Evaluation von Maßnahmen der Prävention von religiöser Radikalisierung in Deutschland (On the evaluation of measures to prevent religious radicalization in Germany). Journal for Deradicalization, 11, 219–257.
Kohn, S. (2018). The opposite of hate: A field guide to repairing our humanity. Algonquin Books.
Kruglanski, A. W., Gelfand, M. J., Bélanger, J. J., Sheveland, A., Hetiarachchi, M., & Gunaratna, R. (2014). The psychology of radicalization and deradicalization: How significance quest impacts violent extremism. Political Psychology, 35, 69–93.
Lustria, M. L. A., Cortese, J., Noar, S. M., & Glueckauf, R. L. (2009). Computer-tailored health interventions delivered over the Web: review and analysis of key components. Patient Education and Counseling, 74(2), 156–173.
Malmasi, S., & Zampieri, M. (2017). Detecting hate speech in social media. ArXiv Preprint ArXiv:1712.06427.
Mastroe, C., & Szmania, S. (2016). Surveying CVE metrics in prevention, disengagement and deradicalization programs. Report to the Office of University Programs, Science and Technology Directorate, Department of Homeland Security.
Mathew, B., Dutt, R., Goyal, P., & Mukherjee, A. (2019). Spread of hate speech in online social media. Proceedings of the 10th ACM Conference on Web Science, 173–182.
McCauley, C., & Moskalenko, S. (2011). Friction: How radicalization happens to them and us. oxford university Press.
McCauley, C. R., & Moskalenko, S. (2017). Understanding political radicalization: The two-pyramids model. American Psychologist, 72(3), 205.
McDonald, B., & Mir, Y. (2011). Al‐Qaida‐influenced violent extremism, UK government prevention policy and community engagement. Journal of Aggression, Conflict and Peace Research.
Moghaddam, F. M. (2005). The staircase to terrorism: A psychological exploration. American Psychologist, 60(2), 161.
Moskalenko, S., & McCauley, C. R. (2009). Measuring political mobilization: The distinction between activism and radicalism. Terrorism and Political Violence, 21(2), 239–260.
Neumann, P. (2013). The trouble with radicalization. International Affairs, 89(4), 873–893.
Pyszczynski, T., Motyl, M., & Abdollahi, A. (2009). Righteous violence: killing for God, country, freedom and justice. Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political Aggression, 1(1), 12–39.
Rauf, A. A. (2021). New moralities for new media? Assessing the role of social media in acts of terror and providing points of deliberation for business ethics. Journal of Business Ethics, 170(2), 229–251.
Rieger, D., Schmitt, J. B., & Frischlich, L. (2018). Hate and counter-voices in the Internet: Introduction to the special issue. SCM Studies in Communication and Media, 7(4), 459–472.
Rosenberg, M. (2015). Society and the adolescent self-image. Princeton university press.
Rotter, J. B. (1966). Generalized expectancies for internal versus external control of reinforcement. Psychological Monographs: General and Applied, 80(1), 1.
Sageman, M. (2011). Understanding terror networks. University of Pennsylvania press.
Schmid, A. P. (2013). Radicalisation, de-radicalisation, counter-radicalisation: A conceptual discussion and literature review. ICCT Research Paper, 97(1), 22.
Schouten, A. P., Janssen, L., & Verspaget, M. (2020). Celebrity vs. Influencer endorsements in advertising: the role of identification, credibility, and Product-Endorser fit. International Journal of Advertising, 39(2), 258–281.
Seipel, C. (2014). Deutsche Version der Self-Control Skala. Zusammenstellung Sozialwissenschaftlicher Items Und Skalen.
Sheeran, P., Orbell, S., & Trafimow, D. (1999). Does the temporal stability of behavioral intentions moderate intention-behavior and past behavior-future behavior relations? Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 25(6), 724–734.
Silber, M. D., Bhatt, A., & Analysts, S. I. (2007). Radicalization in the West: The homegrown threat. Police Department New York.
Silver, L., Huang, C., & Taylor, K. (2019). In emerging economies, smartphone and social media users have broader social networks. Pew Research Center.
Thompson, R. (2011). Radicalization and the use of social media. Journal of Strategic Security, 4(4), 167–190.
Tsimonis, G., & Dimitriadis, S. (2014). Brand strategies in social media. Marketing Intelligence & Planning.
Vergani, M., Iqbal, M., Ilbahar, E., & Barton, G. (2020). The three Ps of radicalization: Push, pull and personal. A systematic scoping review of the scientific evidence about radicalization into violent extremism. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 43(10), 854.
Weimann, G. (2012). Lone wolves in cyberspace. Journal of Terrorism Research.
Wiktorowicz, Q. (2004). Joining the cause: Al-Muhajiroun and radical Islam. The Roots of Radical Islam.
Williams, M. (2021). Attrition happens (and what to do about it). Williams, MJ (2021). Attrition Happens (and What to Do about It). Journal for Deradicalization, 26, 217–226.
Winter, S., Maslowska, E., & Vos, A. L. (2021). The effects of trait-based personalization in social media advertising. Computers in Human Behavior, 114, 106525.
Wolfowicz, M., Litmanovitz, Y., Weisburd, D., & Hasisi, B. (2020). A field-wide systematic review and meta-analysis of putative risk and protective factors for radicalization outcomes. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 36(3), 407–447.
Zhang, H., Zang, Z., Zhu, H., Uddin, M. I., & Amin, M. A. (2022). Big data-assisted social media analytics for business model for business decision making system competitive analysis. Information Processing & Management, 59(1), 102762.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2022 Axel Ebers, Stephan L. Thomsen
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
The JD Journal for Deradicalization uses a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND) Licence. You are free to share - copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format under the following conditions:
Attribution — You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, andindicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.
NonCommercial — You may not use the material for commercial purposes.
NoDerivatives — If you remix, transform, or build upon the material, you may not distribute the modified material.